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 What defence win rate should we realistically aiming for.

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Agroagro
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Agroagro

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Join date : 2011-03-08

What defence win rate should we realistically aiming for. Empty
PostSubject: What defence win rate should we realistically aiming for.   What defence win rate should we realistically aiming for. Icon_minitimeThu Feb 13, 2014 7:56 pm

theory craft a bit here. bare with me kinda thinking out loud.

Usually a good match up for any given deck gives about 60-80% winrate. Its still kinda low because the user control game bypass the advantage. A hard counter can still drop to 90%. but for every good match up there are bad match ups and some terrible ones. giving most decks a least a few match ups that range fro 10-50%.

So theoretically a good defence could have two 60-80% a couple 50% and usually atleast one 10% which i think works about to about a 50% winrate over all.

I guess that makes an argument for strong defences over variance. tho ideally both is possible.

I think variance is kinda the most accepted strategy for defence. ie having a good mix of alot of different styles. But should we weight certain def styles in favour of more strong verse everything and less hard counters or more hard counters?

I think overall as a whole our factions winrate ranges from 15-30% most wars theres usually 4-5 guys with close to 75% a decent amount guys (maybe 15) at ~50%. a bunch around 25% (maybe 15 again?) and a probably more then we should getting 0-10% (I know Ive been there  Embarassed )

here ill pull up a recent serious war for example.
heres vs Bairs from 3 days ago.

aprox. %s
12@50% iiiii iiiii ii
20@33% iiiii iiiii iiiii iiiii
09@25% iiiii iiii
07@10% iiiii ii
02@00% ii

so that war we averaged ~31% if my math isnt failing me... that doesnt seem to bad better then my estimate.

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Thror



Posts : 36
Join date : 2013-10-21

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PostSubject: Re: What defence win rate should we realistically aiming for.   What defence win rate should we realistically aiming for. Icon_minitimeThu Feb 13, 2014 11:22 pm

I think a key on percentages of certain def deck types is definitely needed. F.e. when looking at the spreadsheet i think grimclaws and gauntlets are underrepresented. Also there are hardly any chaos based decks or mantis defs.
Talking to one of gws players he stated that we are way to onesided in our defs. So a better mixup and also maybe some variation from day to day would be needed imo.
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estereth



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Join date : 2013-12-13

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PostSubject: Re: What defence win rate should we realistically aiming for.   What defence win rate should we realistically aiming for. Icon_minitimeFri Feb 14, 2014 8:16 am

i dont think grimclaws are underrepresented as theyre doing poorly in most wars - its hard to figure out if its due to the fact that enemy is using some terra/fear combos or simply fighting instead of surging
id keep max 3-4 grimclaws decks in whole faction more as a 'vanity surprise' for certain decks than a real part of defense but thats up to some smart person whos gonna study our def spreadsheet -.-
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Thror



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Join date : 2013-10-21

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PostSubject: Re: What defence win rate should we realistically aiming for.   What defence win rate should we realistically aiming for. Icon_minitimeFri Feb 14, 2014 11:06 am

@estereth: after a second look I totally have to agree with you. My bad. What is missing and really killed me against BR is lord halcyon decks with terras, cws, usials and pursuers. And I lll stick to the point the rsr with gauntlets is underrepresented imho.
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Agroagro
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Agroagro

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PostSubject: Re: What defence win rate should we realistically aiming for.   What defence win rate should we realistically aiming for. Icon_minitimeFri Feb 14, 2014 3:36 pm

yeah the righteous deck i posted is doing close 35-50% so i think more of those should be added.

Some grimclaw builds are are dangerous tho. I definitly feel the preasure some times. and a perfect draw is hard to beat for most decks. i wonder if theres a build that could work.
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What defence win rate should we realistically aiming for. Empty
PostSubject: Re: What defence win rate should we realistically aiming for.   What defence win rate should we realistically aiming for. Icon_minitime

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